The world is abuzz with news about the impeding impeachment of General Musharraf, The President of Pakistan. Pakistan’s ruling coalition is going around with broad smiles, oozing confidence about the outcome of their efforts. Even the vibes coming from Washington - which have so often affected the fate of Pakistani governments - seems to be supportive of their action. Will they be able to get their way? Should we expect to see Zardari as the next President of Pakistan in place of Musharraf any time soon? That is the million dollar question this blog attempts to answer.

First let’s have a look at some significant events as they developed. An American brokered deal led to the return of Benazir to Pakistan, how ever things did not work out as expected, because she was assassinated. Nawaz Sharif was allowed to return just a day before the election –but not allowed to contest personally though his party was allowed to do so. The PPP riding on a sympathy wave for Benazir was expected to sweep the elections, with Musharraf’s Party a close second, and MQM getting its fair share of seats from Sind .This would ensure that Musharraf’s crowd formed the ruling coalition.

But Nawaz Sharif upset the apple cart. His party secured maximum seats in The Punjab provincial Assembly, Pakistan’s biggest and most important province-while Musharraf’s party was almost wiped out; PPP also failed to do as well as was expected keeping in view the sympathy vote.Inspite of the deal it now became impossible for Zardari to form a coalition with Musharraf’s people. So he formed one with Nawaz Sharif instead.

Thereafter Zardari has committed one mistake after another. He violated his agreement with Nawaz Sharif about the immediate restoration of the judiciary. This resulted in PML (N) federal ministers resigning from their seats.

Worst of all he treated one of the most respected and influential politician from Sind Mr. Amin Faheem in a most shabby manner, virtually ousting him by ignoring and excluding him from all important meetings and decisions.Amin Faheem is the one who held the fort as ‘in situ’ PPP chief while Benazir and Co were outside the country.For eight long years he worked hard to ensure the party remained intact and did not succumb to Musharraf’s inducements to sell it’s soul.Infact many in Sind hold him up as the main reason for PPP’s survival and election victory.

All this intrigue prevented Zardari from impeaching Musharraf while the iron was hot -which was also Nawaz’s demand – though he frequently talked about doing so in his speeches. Mean while the rise in oil prices, with the resultant adverse effect on food and fuel prices-as well as on the national capacity to generate already deficient electricity added to the peoples woes.Feelings spread that the government was not bothered about their issues,and the PPP graph plunged. Zardari never held in high regard for his conduct, lost a lot of his standing even in Sind for his shabby treatment of Ameen Faheem.

Suddenly three days back he decided to impeach the President. His timing couldn’t have been more wrong even if he wanted to, but as we shall soon see perhaps he had no choice.

A few weeks back both the American commanders as well as their allies in Afghanistan started getting restive about the way ‘The War On Terrorists’ was faring in Pakistan. Their military threatened to launch hot pursuit operations across Pakistan’s borders into FATA, while the CIA chief started making unfriendly noises about their long time ally-and surrogate- the ISI. This along with a shocking ‘breaking news’ story about American torture and illegal detention of Dr. Aafia Siddique and her minor child, raised anti-American feelings to a fever pitch in Pakistan.

On the eve of his departure for USA, Prime Minister Gilani issued an order placing the ISI under civilian control.In the USA Americans showed proof to him about some ISI personnel’s alleged involvement in support of terrorists. The CIA chief also issued another statement to the effect the ISI needed to be reigned in. The PM’s delegation on their return to Pakistan immediately gave circulation to the American views – perhaps to impart added strength to their decision about ISI!

President Musharraf mean while issued a very strong statement against any cross border attack by US troops, and also a statement to the effect that ISI was Pakistan’s asset and ‘anyone’ talking against it was an enemy. Within the day the Prime Minister had to retract his ISI order!

All of a sudden the shoe was on the other foot. Musharraf whose party had lost support because he was believed to be an American ‘stooge’ was the one who was standing up against them, and the one’s who had won elections on a nationalistic and pro-democratic agenda were being perceived as American stooges!

Getting back to the impeachment, some people feel that after retraction of the ISI order it became a do or die matter for the PPP government. Feeling their days would now be numbered, they had no option but to go for impeachment.

Now let’s look at Musharraf’s options, he has already said he would stand and fight the charges any way he can. Resigning tamely would be against his nature. Dissolving the National Assembly (which he has the constitutional right to do) would lead to further political chaos, and is therefore least likely. Taking the case to his ‘hand picked’ Supreme Court to either delay or set aside the proceedings on legal grounds is one workable option.

But even better is collecting enough support to defeat the impeachment proceedings in the national assembly. Can he do so?

The coalition needs 295 votes to be successful against him – counting the votes of all likely allies they claim they have 305. Now that’s only a question of 10 votes.

In Pakistani politics horse trading is a common phenomena. To cause 10 people to switch sides is no Gordian’s knot - more so when the one’s who do so can cast themselves in the role of anti-American patriots.Incidently PPP has claimed that over 40 people from Musharraf’s party have contacted them to switch side.

In my view, for two reasons, this is likely a political ploy to encourage defection .Firstly because this is almost all members of Musharraf’s party, and secondly a party which lost elections because their leader was considered an American stooge, would think twice before they join those who are now so considered!

But more importantly there is Amin Faheem. He has already issued a statement that he would treat the PPP as they treated him after the election. That bodes ill for any PPP attempt to impeach Musharraf - for he could easily take 25 to 30 PPP votes over to The President.

It seems Zardari and the CIA chief has given Musharraf a life line. My bets are Musharraf is here to stay.