Some make of it a façade and call it India’s 9/11; as if the macabre tragedy that was ‘The Mumbai Mayhem’ did not deserve a name of its own. As if they lack the originality –or the feeling – or the commitment even to tag something as momentous as these three days in Mumbai’s history with a name which could stand out uniquely on its own. As if this was not India’s problem; but was America’s or even Pakistan’s!
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I am not quite sure about the reactions of the rest of the Indians whose loved ones died here, but I am certain that Mrs. Hemant Karkare, the widow of the ATS chief who died doing his duty for India and global terrorism, would cringe at this identification. For this makes it quite apparent that Indian politics is already at play and the matter is not being taken as seriously –or as maturely - as it should be.

From day one the whole affair placed India in a very bad light – and each day added to her woes. An aspiring super power was caught with its pants down, and found to be less organized – and potentially more worrisome - then the Somalian pirates whose boat its warship blew up a few days back.

It is alleged that a dozen badly trained terrorists – for they left their passports ,ID cards and credit cards in their boat - from Pakistan; carrying loads of arms ,ammunition and explosives evading the entire Indian Navy and Coast Guards entered Bombay; literally painting the town red in an orgy of terror. And if this were not amazing by itself their next feats were even more astounding. After landing at a fixed spot they jogged and hitch hiked their way through Bombay’s traffic hitting about thirteen widely dispersed targets near simultaneously. One pair is even familiar with the route Bombay’s top ATS officials will take to react, and, successfully ambush and kill the city’s anti-terrorist chief and his top lieutenants right at the start. Thereafter a couple of them prove more familiar with their environments –and more efficient at their job- then India’s top commandos; and hold thousands of them at bay for three days.

By the end of it all the world was shocked out of its wits; and the Indians enraged enough to lynch their own government – with the BJP egging them on asking for its blood. Indian politics and emotions -given the dynamics of an election year-has come into full play!

Congress immediately launched its standard operating procedure to confront such a crises. Within minutes of the action starting it makes some startling announcements; it has captured a Pakistani who has confessed to have been trained by the LIT; it has SIMS pointing to Pakistan origin; it has found passports and credit cards of some terrorists in a rubber dingy which they apparently used - these point to an outside hand; it has captured two Pakistani merchant ships which were apparently used as mother ships etc,etc…Here is a link to a standard but sensible Pakistani reaction to this type of stuff Mumbai vs Karachi: is the blame game ever going to end?

The public anger has been diverted towards Pakistan; As the ghastliness of the action increases, the blame game is correspondingly notched up .By evening the PM in an address to the nation announces an outside hand and India’s determination to punish those involved. Next day the foreign minister accuses Pakistan by name; by the time the crisis ends the Indian air force in on red alert, but it is also announced India has no plans to move troops to the border.

As the public takes to the streets it is announced that India reserves the right to strike at terrorist camps inside Pakistan; During Condoleezza Rice’s visit the Indian FM announces that India will decide on it’s actions after receiving Pakistan’s response, blissfully unaware that in a Press conference Zardari has already given the same. It is sharp, clear and to the point. “Pakistan will study the evidence once it is received; and any persons found guilty will be tried in Pakistan’s own courts”.

I feel sorry for Manmohan Singh and Zardari. In one stroke the terrorists undid all the good work done by India’s PM in taking India towards super power status; as well as highlighted how out of step Zardari and Co (including Americans) are with the aspirations of Pakistan’s people – these Indo-Pakistani peace propagators have been shown up as pacifists and groveling stooges.

The terrorist action indicates that the fanatics belonged to a highly complex amorphous, well trained, well funded, organized and motivated outfit; with an external element coming from outside Bombay as well as sleeper cells within the city. Both merged to carry out highly decentralized, yet extremely precise, lethal and well coordinated strikes against 13 or so widely dispersed targets through out the city.

Except for one target which involved an ambush of the top echelon of the city’s ATS, all other targets were selected with a view to causing maximum possible deaths of foreigners as well as locals. The operational strategy obviously seems to be to create a situation in which anything but the strongest response against Pakistan would doom Congress to failure in the coming elections- perhaps even precipitate it’s fall earlier.

In this the terrorists succeed beyond their wildest dreams. The public processions for action against Pakistan-led by BJP - have already started. In 2001-2002, New Delhi responded to the attack on the Indian parliament by moving forces close to the Pakistani border; however this time their public expects them to do more. After all the Americans are striking daily with drones inside Pakistan- why should India not do something similar? This places the congress in a very odd position.

It is being forced into a near war situation –and into making outrageous claims- which it knows are premature –as well as being one’s which Pakistan cannot accept. Thus it is being forced into the next stage- a threat of use of force, which it knows it cannot carry out. The INC’s goose is cooked and ready for the BJP to eat!

Even for the US this crisis is graver then the one in 2001-2002. That one they used to ask India to back off, and in turn asked for –and got- increased US-Pakistan cooperation for the war in Afghanistan. This time how ever Pakistan’s first responses is to warn that if the Indians moved their forces to the borders, Pakistan would redeploy it troops on the Afghan border to face India.

That is one disaster USA cannot afford. The Taliban already re-surging would get a great boost. Free of any threat from the Pakistani army they would be left with no motivation to talk; and would mount ever increasing and bolder attacks from tribal areas. Even their funding and recruitment would likely increase. U.S. already stretched to the limit, would likely face a bigger disaster.

Zardari and the PPP are in an even weaker position, then the Congress is in India. They have already been caught on the wrong foot more then once in their sly efforts to ‘chain’ the ISI. The global economic crisis; rising inflation in Pakistan; their weak kneed initial actions including: offering India no first use of nuclear weapons; undue haste and eagerness to send DG ISI to India within 24 hours; and our FM’s staying out in Delhi as an unwelcome guest for three days when he should have been directing Pakistan’s response from Islamabad, has convinced the Pakistanis that these are the wrong type of people to have at the top in a time of crisis. Any further concessions will result in certain doom for the PPP. Even the armed forces have made all the concessions they can to the Americans – are doing all they can – and therefore are in no position to deliver any more.

Rice’s efforts will therefore remain unproductive and at best may get only token response. The US will either have to reconcile with the situation or add Pakistan with its huge population and nuclear weapons, as well as Pakistan Army and the ISI to the Taliban as the enemies it chooses to face. I doubt if such a course of nation building would be America’s choice.

So without a doubt any further concessions from Pakistan are out. In India the focus has shifted from the excellent results achieved by the Congress government and the impending exposure of a BJP, IB and Indian armed forces nexus involved in organizing and implementing terrorist activities within India; to a certainty that this very nexus will now gain complete political control over India. The Indian government would need statesmen greater then it has –and a more educated public then the one it possesses to handle this coolly. As it is, it cannot remain inactive if it wishes to stay in power. For in the event of inactivity and another attack, Indian public opinion probably will swing to an uncontrollable extreme. And the terrorists have promised even more to come!

Knowing the American panache for blundering through crises with confidence based on the arrogance of power, the most likely scenario is: India is likely to move forces to the border.Any thing less by India might cause the Congress to collapse! Pakistan will also withdraw forces from it’s western border and redeploy them to the east. The US will have to fend as best as it can in Afghanistan. Any overt US pressure on the western front or even greater pressure on the Pakistani civilian government could cause it to collapse, opening the door to a military-Islamist government willing to play the China card.

But the Americans can be wiser if they so choose. They could agree to stop the drone raids on Pakistan in exchange for greater Indo-Pak co-operation in anti-terrorist activity through out Afghanistan as well as in the sub-continent. At the very least this would buy time till Obama gets into the chair ; and also give enough playing space to Pakistan-including the PPP and it’s armed forces/intelligence agencies – as well as the Indian National Congress/ it’s intelligence activities to get their act together for more sincere regional co-operating in controlling terrorism.

Manmohan Singh as well as Zardari – not to mention the anti-terrorists and pacifists in both countries deserve such an opportunity. All parties to the issue must refuse to be driven by the agenda of terrorists,and avail this great opportunity of assisting each other in the common war against terrorists - through a greater understanding of the limitations of each.